CFRW CAPITOL UPDATE – FEBRUARY 23, 2025

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he will be launching an investigation into the high cost of California High Speed Rail (CAHSR), fulfilling a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) promise made late last year.

Originally estimated to cost $33 billion in 2008 with a San Francisco to Los Angeles line set to open by 2028, the California high speed rail system has since ballooned to costing $128 billion, to $135 billion, with an estimated partial completion being set somewhere in the 2030’s. Last year in March, the California High Speed Rail Authority (CHRSA) confirmed that the system still needed $100 billion to link up San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Since March 2024, the “$100 billion behind” number has remained largely unchanged. But the grand scale of the project has only invited more criticism. Following Donald Trump’s victory last month and his proposal of forming the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the cost of the High Speed Rail project has once again fallen under federal crosshairs. Previously, Trump cancelled around $1 billion in funding for the project when he was still in his first term, only for President Joe Biden to bring it back, along with an extra $300,000.

DOGE Co-Commissioner Vivek Ramaswamy confirmed in December that they would be looking at removing all-funding from the California High Speed rail project. Congressman Kevin Kiley (R-CA) also introduced a bill to eliminate federal funding for the failed California High-Speed Rail project. In either situation, the cancellation would amount to at least $8 billion in potential federal funding. Democrats likewise mobilized, scrambling to pass as many grants for the program as possible before Trump took office.

Physical construction of the first leg between Bakersfield and Merced only began last month. Currently, projections show that construction of the first leg will be completed in 2032 at the earliest, with the first trains set to run in 2033. However, any positive traction on the line in the last few months have been bogged down by the looming cost and threats by the Trump administration.

This led to Tuesday when President Trump announced that he would be launching an investigation into CAHSR. Specifically, he noted that the high cost of the program was mind-boggling, echoing decades of criticisms within California that the project has been nothing more than a boondoggle.

“The train that’s being built between Los Angeles and San Francisco is the worst managed project I think I’ve ever seen,” said Trump on Tuesday. “We’re going to start an investigation of that because it’s not possible. I built for a living and I built on time, on budget. It’s impossible that something could cost that much. They made it much shorter. So now it’s at little places way away from San Francisco and way away from Los Angeles. We’re going to start a big investigation on that because I’ve never seen anything like it. Nobody has ever seen anything like it.

“It’s the worst managed project I think I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen some of the worst. I read that every person who would ride the train could instead take a limousine back and forth, and you’d have hundreds of billions of dollars left over. It is the worst overrun that there has ever been in the history of our country.”

When questioned on Trump’s comments on Tuesday, CHRSA pointed to  post on X they made that day, pointing out their progress.

“Ignore the noise. We’re busy building,” read the post. “As we enter the track-laying phase, 171 miles are under active construction & we’ve already:  COMPLETED 50 major structures  COMPLETED 60 miles of guideway  COMPLETED full enviro clearance from SF to LA  CREATED 14,600 jobs.”

Many in the industry were not surprised by the announcement on Tuesday, but have said that stopping the High Speed Rail line would be very difficult to do even with an investigation finding some faults.

“So Trump wants to launch an investigation into a state program that uses some federal dollars,” said transportation industry accountant Derrick Clark to the Globe on Tuesday. “Trump and DOGE have been saying they were going to do something like this for months. And they can. If your project is using federal money, you can be looked into at anytime. So what happens after an investigation depends on what they find out. It would have to be quite damaging to even pause it though.

“For your readers wanting it to flat out end, it is possible to do. It’s not impossible. But the federal investigation would have to find so much wrong with it. And then the state would need to put the brakes on it.

“What’s more realistic is that Trump axes all federal funding for it. I mean, he can do that even without an investigation. And then he can go after the sources of state funds for it. It’s pretty complicated all the things that need to happen legally, financially and through orders and legislation. He can also throw them some surprises, like impromptu tests and inspections by Department of Transportation organizations. So, it really depends on a lot, and the investigation is a good starting point.

“Most likely scenario is that the investigation finds things wrongs, he cuts off federal funding, then he goes after the project now with more credibility on his side. Remember, he is challenging California on a lot of things like this. You mentioned that he might go after that 2035 electric car law. Him killing that is more likely than him killing the high speed rail project. But it is possible. Who knows, 30 years from now, hikers could be hiking on a trail of all these old rail lines of this project that was never built. This investigation is a step forward.”